Google claim that less than 10% of their clicks are invalid.
Most of these clicks get detected by their 3-part click fraud detection system, but there is another 0.02% which get reactively detected when advertisers request an investigation.
Inside AdWords: Invalid Clicks – Google’s Overall Numbers
Does that mean that on average all advertisers should expect a 0.02% rebate on their advertising spend due to click fraud?
If the law of averages applies, then most advertisers who spend big amounts would be well served to investigate and report fraudulent clicks. For example, using averages, an advertisers spedning £100,000 per month on paid search could typically get back £20 per month or £240 a year on account of fraudulent clicks - is that worth spending a few hours investigating them or investing in a click fraud detection system?
... depends how much you trust Google's proclaimation!
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